Four-layer model
PackIndex tracks four tiers of the packaging supply chain: L0 Primary Inputs (crude oil, naphtha, natural gas, electricity, diesel, carbon allowances, primary metals and recovered fibre), L1 Raw Materials (pulp, polymers, metal sheet), L2 Semi-finished intermediates (board grades, films, foil), and L3 Finished Unit Indices (CORR, FLEX, RGID, PAPR, FOAM, LABL and 20 others). Each layer feeds the next via documented supply-chain linkages.
L3 index construction
Each finished-unit index is a converted price for its reference pack: what a buyer typically pays a converter, not the raw-material cost alone. It starts from a calibrated reference level and moves with the pack's own bill of materials — L1 and L2 input prices plus energy — in proportion to the share of the pack's cost those inputs represent (its pass-through share, between 15% and 85%). A 20% rise in fibre therefore moves a corrugated box by roughly half that, not by 20%. Anonymised contributor Pulse signals add a small sentiment adjustment. Recipes and reference levels are reviewed quarterly.
Input checks
Every index is computed and published live on every run. Each input price is checked before use: a price that jumps outside ×0.6–×1.6 of its last accepted value in a single update is treated as a data error and the last accepted price is used instead, unless the new level is confirmed on three consecutive updates, in which case it is accepted as a genuine market move. An input with no new price keeps its last accepted price.
L0, L1 and L2 series
Each input, raw material and semi-finished code has one published value per day, in US dollars per a fixed unit (per tonne, barrel, MWh, therm or litre). Several market sources can report the same material, in different currencies and units; every report is converted to US dollars at the exchange rate of its own date and to the series unit. Market reports take precedence over manual entries, which take precedence over derived or interpolated estimates; reference seeds are used only for a code that has never had a market report. Among reports of the same standing, the one consistent with the series' recent level is used, and a report that jumps outside ×0.6–×1.6 of that level is held back until the new level is confirmed on three separate dates. On days without a new market report, materials with a recipe (polymers from naphtha, gas and power; board grades from recovered fibre and pulp; films from resin) move with their input prices at the recipe's material share; other series keep their last assessed level, as an index level stands until the next assessment. Changes over one week, one month, three months and one year are measured on this series.
Forecasts
The 12-week forward view comes from the index's own recent history — modelled history for finished packs (adjusted for upstream raw-material moves already in the supply chain), a damped trend of weekly closes for inputs and materials — and is published as modelled with a confidence grade (HIGH, MEDIUM or LOW) that reflects how much history supports it. A forecast is a projection, not a quote.
Series restart — 8 October 2026
On 8 October 2026 every finished-unit index moved to the converted-price method above, and 66 packs that were previously shown with fixed values gained their own bill-of-materials recipes, so all finished-unit indices are now computed live. Earlier values were on a different basis (material cost for some packs, fixed reference values for others, and an energy-unit error from 28 September) and are not comparable, so finished-unit histories start on that date. The earlier values are archived, not deleted.
L0, L1 & L2 data sources
Input, raw material and intermediate prices come from verified market data sources. Energy, crude oil and metal prices update daily; fibre, board and polymer prices weekly. Published series are rebuilt every 30 minutes.
Pulse contributor system
Registered users submit directional Pulse signals — volume band, price direction vs prior quarter, lead time, supplier mood. Signals are anonymised, aggregated into a diffusion index (range -100 to +100), and used as a sentiment adjustment layer on top of the quantitative model.
Update frequency
L1 energy prices update daily. Fibre, board, and polymer prices update weekly. L3 finished unit indices are published weekly every Tuesday. Contributor pulse windows close on Tuesdays.
Geographic coverage
All indices are published in USD with live conversion to EUR, GBP, CAD, BRL, MXN, CLP, and COP. North American polymer prices are also displayed in ¢/lb and $/short ton. Latin American prices reflect local currency equivalents at live rates.
What indices include
Raw material commodity costs (L1), semi-finished intermediates (L2) via documented BOM weights, mill energy costs, converter conversion and margin (through the calibrated reference level), and contributor-verified Pulse signals. Not included: print, special finishes, tooling, freight and duties.
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